The race to replace Congressman Jerry Costello is too close to call.
Democrat William Enyart and Republican Jason Plummer are neck-in-neck as they battle it out over the district that encompasses St. Louis’ Metro East area and much of southern Illinois.
David Yepsen is the director of the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute at Southern Illinois University. He says the race is significant on a national level.
“This is a seat that the Republicans have thought they could pick up for a long time because while it has a little bit of a Democratic skew, it’s also got a very conservative skew to it, particularly in the rural parts of it,” Yepsen said. “And Democrats need to hold onto this seat if they want to capture control of the House.”
Both candidates have considerable strengths and weaknesses, Yepsen says. Plummer is 30 years old and lacks experience, but he has name-recognition and youthful energy. Enyart’s greatest strength is his experience as a retired General, but he entered the race late and is still playing catch-up.
Yepsen says the campaign’s negative tone could be a “tune out factor” for many voters. He thinks voter turnout will determine the outcome.
“Barack Obama at the head of the ticket is a mixed bag for Bill Enyart because he’s going to gain some and he’s going to lose some. Jason Plummer is hoping for a big Romney turnout in this area because that could very be enough to lift him.”
Yepsen says there are still no good polls on the race.